Micron's Memory Market Meltdown: Revenue Plunges 47% Amid Industry-Wide Oversupply Crisis | 10KAY
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MU • 10-Q • Q4 2022 • Neutral

Micron's Memory Market Meltdown: Revenue Plunges 47% Amid Industry-Wide Oversupply Crisis

December 22, 2022 • 1 min read

TL;DR

Micron faces severe headwinds as revenue collapsed 47% YoY to $4.09B amid unprecedented inventory corrections and pricing pressure in memory markets. Gross margins contracted dramatically to 22.9% (-34.4pts YoY) forcing aggressive supply cuts and $2.6B in inventory write-downs. The company announced plans to cut DRAM/NAND production by 20%+ and reduce CapEx by 40% to $8B in FY23. Management expects challenging conditions through 2023 but sees potential recovery starting in H2 as customer invento

  • Financial Performance Overview: Revenue declined precipitously to $4.09B (-47% YoY, -23% QoQ) with both DRAM and NAND segments showing severe weakness. Gross margins collapsed to 22.9% from 47.3% last year as ASPs fell ~20-30% across product lines. Operating loss reached $1.7B compared to $2.3B income YoY, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2009. Free cash flow turned negative at -$1.5B as working capital deteriorated amid inventory build-up.
  • Strategic Initiatives and Operational Changes: Management announced aggressive supply cuts including 20%+ reduction in DRAM/NAND production and 40% CapEx reduction to $8B in FY23. Workforce reductions of 10% planned through 2023 alongside temporary compensation cuts. R&D investment maintained at $3.6B annually to protect next-gen technology development. New 232-layer NAND and 1-beta DRAM ramps proceeding despite near-term challenges.
  • Market Position and Competitive Dynamics: Micron maintains #3 position in DRAM (23% share) and NAND (11% share) but faces intense pressure from Samsung and SK Hynix. Customer inventory corrections expected to last 2-3 quarters with PC/mobile segments most impacted. Data center demand showing early signs of stabilization. Company's technology leadership in advanced nodes provides competitive buffer during downturn.
  • Operational Efficiency and Profitability: Cost per bit reductions of 8-10% insufficient to offset 25-35% ASP declines. Underutilization charges of $500M expected in Q1 FY23 due to production cuts. Fixed cost absorption deteriorating with lower volumes. Efficiency initiatives targeting $3B annualized savings but meaningful margin recovery requires market stabilization.
  • Growth Catalysts and Material Risks: Near-term visibility remains extremely limited with continued weakness in PC/mobile. Growth drivers include AI/ML adoption driving HBM demand, automotive segment expansion, and 5G infrastructure. Key risks include prolonged inventory correction cycle, geopolitical tensions affecting China sales (25% of revenue), and potential price war if competitors maintain high utilization.
Revenue
$4.09B ( YoY, QoQ) with DRAM $2.8B ( YoY) and NAND $1.1B ( YoY)
↓ -47%
Rd Spend
$3.6B annual run-rate ( YoY) representing of revenue
↑ +5%
Net Income
-$2.3B vs +$2.7B YoY with net margin
↓ -56.2%
Gross Margin
(-3440bps YoY, -1580bps QoQ) with pricing and utilization headwinds
↑ 22.9%
Free Cash Flow
-$1.5B vs +$3.2B YoY with conversion rate
↓ -37%
Operating Margin
(-7320bps YoY) including inventory charges
↓ -41.7%
Growth Indicators
20 QoQ declines across product lines
↓ -30%
Bit Shipments ↓DRAM -15% QoQ, NAND -21% QoQ
Inventory Days 151 days (+45 days YoY)

Micron faces severe headwinds as revenue collapsed 47% YoY to $4.09B amid unprecedented inventory corrections and pricing pressure in memory markets. Gross margins contracted dramatically to 22.9% (-34.4pts YoY) forcing aggressive supply cuts and $2.6B in inventory write-downs. The company announced plans to cut DRAM/NAND production by 20%+ and reduce CapEx by 40% to $8B in FY23. Management expects challenging conditions through 2023 but sees potential recovery starting in H2 as customer inventories normalize.

Key Risks

  • Extended demand weakness prolongs inventory correction beyond H1 2023
  • Competitor actions maintaining high utilization trigger price war
  • China exposure (25% revenue) vulnerable to geopolitical disruption
  • Fixed cost absorption deteriorates further with production cuts

Key Opportunities

  • AI/ML adoption driving high-margin HBM memory demand ($5B+ TAM by 2025)
  • Automotive segment growing 25%+ annually from $2B base
  • Cost optimization provides operating leverage in recovery
  • Industry consolidation improves long-term pricing discipline

Bottom Line

Micron's Q4 results represent a cyclical trough that will test management's ability to navigate both near-term market challenges and long-term strategic positioning. While aggressive supply cuts and cost initiatives demonstrate appropriate crisis response, sustainable recovery requires broader demand stabilization and inventory normalization likely extending through H1 2023. The company's maintained R&D investment and technology leadership provide competitive buffer, but prolonged downturn could force harder strategic choices. Key metrics to watch include bit shipment trends, inventory levels at key customers, and early indicators from PC/mobile markets. The contrarian opportunity lies in Micron's strengthened cost structure and technology position emerging from this downturn, though timing remains highly uncertain.

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)
Filed December 22, 2022