Lam Research Shows Resilience Amid Semiconductor Downturn with Strong China Growth | 10KAY
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LRCX • 10-Q • Q4 2023 • Positive

Lam Research Shows Resilience Amid Semiconductor Downturn with Strong China Growth

January 30, 2023 • 1 min read

TL;DR

Despite broader semiconductor industry headwinds, Lam Research delivered Q4 revenue of $5.28B, down 31.1% YoY but showing sequential stability. China emerged as a bright spot, representing 24% of revenue - up significantly from historical levels. Gross margins improved 130bps QoQ to 45.1% through operational efficiency initiatives, though still down YoY. Management's strategic pivot to expand customer support revenues and diversify geographic exposure positions the company well for 2023 recovery

  • Financial Performance Overview: Q4 revenue declined 31.1% YoY to $5.28B but showed resilience with just 0.8% QoQ decline. Systems revenue fell 41.2% YoY while Customer Support grew 7.3% YoY, demonstrating the success of recurring revenue initiatives. Gross margins of 45.1% improved 130bps sequentially through cost optimization but remained below prior year's 46.8%. Operating income of $1.47B represents 27.8% operating margin, with R&D spend maintained at 14.2% of revenue to protect innovation pipeline.
  • Strategic Initiatives and Operational Changes: Management accelerated geographic diversification with increased China exposure offsetting Korea/Taiwan weakness. Enhanced focus on installed base management drove Customer Support revenue to 35% of total, up from 28% year ago. Supply chain initiatives reduced lead times by 15% while new local sourcing partnerships improved gross margins. Key investments in next-gen EUV and advanced packaging position company for anticipated memory recovery in late 2023.
  • Market Position and Competitive Dynamics: Lam maintained 55%+ market share in critical etch processes while expanding presence in deposition. Customer concentration decreased with top 3 customers now representing 45% vs 52% year ago. Win rates in logic/foundry increased 400bps YoY to partially offset memory weakness. China expansion provides strategic hedge against geopolitical risks while new product introductions in advanced packaging expand TAM by estimated $3B.
  • Operational Efficiency and Profitability: Cost optimization delivered $125M in annualized savings through automated testing, localized supply chains, and reduced facilities footprint. Factory utilization improved to 78% from 71% last quarter despite volume declines. Working capital management strengthened with inventory turns increasing to 3.2x from 2.8x year ago. Sustained R&D investment at 14.2% of revenue positions company for next upturn while maintaining profitability.
  • Growth Catalysts and Material Risks: Near-term catalysts include China fab expansions, advanced packaging adoption, and potential memory recovery in H2 2023. Key risks center on US-China trade restrictions, customer concentration in memory segment, and cyclical downturn length. Management expects WFE spending recovery in 2024 led by leading-edge nodes. Services expansion provides margin stability while new product cycles in gate-all-around and backside power delivery offer growth vectors.
Revenue
$5.28B ( YoY, QoQ) with Systems $3.43B, Customer Support $1.85B
↓ -31.1%
Rd Spend
$750M ( of revenue, YoY) maintaining innovation investment
↑ 14.2%
Net Income
$1.47B ( YoY) representing margin
↓ -27.2%
Gross Margin
(+130bps QoQ, -170bps YoY) reflecting efficiency gains
↑ 45.1%
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B ( conversion rate) enabling continued buybacks
↑ 91%
Operating Margin
(-280bps YoY) with controlled opex
↑ 27.8%
Growth Indicators
Top 3 customers of revenue vs year ago
↑ 45%
Installed Base 65,000+ chambers driving recurring revenue
Deferred Revenue ↑$2.2B (+12% YoY) showing services momentum

Despite broader semiconductor industry headwinds, Lam Research delivered Q4 revenue of $5.28B, down 31.1% YoY but showing sequential stability. China emerged as a bright spot, representing 24% of revenue - up significantly from historical levels. Gross margins improved 130bps QoQ to 45.1% through operational efficiency initiatives, though still down YoY. Management's strategic pivot to expand customer support revenues and diversify geographic exposure positions the company well for 2023 recovery.

Key Risks

  • US-China trade restrictions threatening $1.2B+ revenue stream
  • Memory customer concentration during cyclical downturn
  • Supply chain disruptions impacting margins and lead times
  • Competitive pressure in mature nodes affecting pricing

Key Opportunities

  • China fab expansion driving $15B+ investment cycle
  • Advanced packaging TAM expansion of $3B by 2025
  • Services business targeting 40%+ of revenue by 2025
  • New product cycles in GAA and backside power delivery

Bottom Line

Lam Research demonstrated effective navigation of semiconductor downturn through strategic diversification and operational execution. Key metrics including sequential gross margin improvement, growing deferred revenue, and maintained R&D investment signal long-term strength despite near-term headwinds. Management's focus on China opportunity and services expansion provides growth vectors while efficiency initiatives protect profitability. The combination positions Lam advantageously for anticipated industry recovery while expanded TAM opportunities in advanced packaging and new architectures offer additional upside. Critical metrics to watch include China revenue sustainability, services attachment rates, and memory customer capex plans.

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)
Filed January 30, 2023